Nikki Haley leads Trump by 4% in the New Hampshire survey

Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and a GOP presidential candidate, is making significant strides in New Hampshire’s Republican primary race, closing the gap with former President Donald Trump. According to a recent American Research Group poll, conducted between December 14 and 20, Haley garnered the support of 29% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

In comparison, Trump led with 33%. This four-point difference represents a notable shift in the state’s political landscape, as Trump has been the long-standing Republican front-runner​​.

Haley’s Gaining Momentum: A CBS News/YouGov poll echoed similar findings, with 29% of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire supporting Haley and 44% backing Trump. This poll highlights Haley’s growing popularity in the state, with voters perceiving her as the most “likable” and “reasonable” candidate. Additionally, 53% describe her as “prepared,” closely following Trump’s 54% in this regard​​.

Endorsements and Implications: Haley’s rise in New Hampshire has been bolstered by the endorsement of Governor Chris Sununu, who has pledged robust support for her candidacy. Sununu’s backing is particularly significant as he is a prominent Republican figure in the state.

This development has had implications for other candidates as well, such as former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is also vying for attention in the first-in-the-nation primary state. Christie’s current 10% support among New Hampshire voters has qualified him for an invite to a CNN debate in New Hampshire, scheduled for January 21​​.

The Broader Republican Primary Scene: While Haley’s performance in New Hampshire is noteworthy, the broader picture of the Republican primary shows varying dynamics. In Iowa, Trump maintains a strong lead, with 58% of likely caucus-goers supporting him. Haley, however, lags behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has secured an endorsement from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds. In Iowa, 22% support DeSantis, with 13% backing Haley​​.

Polling Methodology and Accuracy: The CBS poll surveyed 855 registered voters in New Hampshire and 1,054 in Iowa between December 8 and 15. The respondents were selected from different online panels. The margin of error for the results among likely Republican caucus-goers and primary voters was +/-6.1 points in Iowa and +/-5.5 points in New Hampshire, indicating a level of uncertainty in the poll outcomes​​.

Nikki Haley’s unexpected surge in New Hampshire signifies a dynamic shift in the Republican primary race, challenging the long-standing dominance of Donald Trump. Her increasing popularity among likely GOP voters, backed by significant endorsements, is reshaping the contours of the primary battle. However, the situation in other key states like Iowa shows a different scenario, underscoring the diverse and complex nature of the Republican primary process leading up to the 2024 presidential election.