BUFFALO, N.Y. – Western New York is preparing for another season of snow bursts, cold fronts, and warm thaws as Storm Team 2 reveals its Winter Weather Outlook for 2025–26. Much like last year, the region faces a weak La Niña pattern, which often leads to alternating waves of Arctic cold and mild spells across the Great Lakes.
Patterns Shaping the Forecast
Meteorologists are closely monitoring several global climate signals that will influence this winter’s setup. Chief among them is La Niña, marked by cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean waters. This pattern alters the jet stream, typically bringing slightly warmer and wetter conditions to the Great Lakes region.
However, since this year’s La Niña is weak, it may open the door for both sharp cold outbreaks and significant lake-effect snowfall. Historical records show that of 17 winters with weak La Niñas over the past 70 years, eight produced above-average snow totals across Western New York.
Snowfall Forecast by Region
In the Buffalo zone, snowfall is projected between 75 and 95 inches, just below the long-term average of 95.4 inches at the Buffalo Airport. Temperatures should stay near or slightly above normal, though periodic cold surges could bring bursts of lake-effect snow.
For northern areas like Niagara Falls, Lockport, Lewiston, and Albion, totals are expected to range from 50 to 75 inches, with slightly higher numbers near the Lake Ontario shoreline.
The Southtowns will see heavier totals, ranging from 95 to 120 inches in lower elevations and up to 190 inches across the higher hills of southern Erie and Wyoming counties. Meanwhile, the Southern Tier, particularly Chautauqua Ridge and ski country, could see between 150 and 190 inches this season.
How Meteorologists Built the Outlook
Long-term forecasts consider a combination of global patterns known as teleconnections. Besides La Niña, Storm Team 2 factored in Eurasian snow cover, which is expanding faster than average this fall. This rapid build-up increases reflectivity through the Albedo effect, allowing for colder air masses to form over the region.
“When snow cover across Eurasia grows quickly, it sets the stage for more Arctic air to reach North America,” explained a Storm Team 2 meteorologist.
Lake Erie’s Influence on Winter Weather
One of the biggest contributors to this year’s outlook is Lake Erie, which remains unusually warm for early November. Last year, the lake broke record high temperatures for October, reaching 70°F on October 1, and similar warmth is being recorded this year.
Warm lake waters can fuel intense lake-effect snow events, especially during early winter, when cold air first sweeps across the region. Residents can expect heavy, localized snowfalls followed by occasional mid-season melts, similar to last winter’s fluctuating patterns.
The Role of Global Climate Patterns
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is another factor meteorologists are watching closely. When the NAO trends positive, it leads to a fast-moving jet stream that keeps Arctic air away. Short periods of negative NAO may, however, trigger brief but intense cold spells and major snow events across Western New York.
Overall, this suggests a variable winter—short bursts of frigid weather followed by mild thaws, with lake-effect snow being the primary source of accumulation rather than large-scale storms.
What to Expect This Winter
This year’s setup mirrors 2024–25 in many ways but brings slightly more potential for early-season Arctic blasts and localized heavy snowfall. Western New Yorkers should prepare for frequent weather swings and occasional travel disruptions, particularly through mid-January.
Even if the total snowfall finishes near average, the timing and intensity of lake-effect events could make this winter one to remember across the region.
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